The private equity market in Asia Pacific experienced a significant decline in deal value last year, reaching its lowest point since 2014. This downward trend was accompanied by a drop in fundraising to a 10-year low, reflecting the challenges posed by slowing growth, high interest rates, and volatile public markets. According to Bain & Company’s 2024 Asia-Pacific Private Equity Report, the region saw an overall decline of more than 23% in deal value, totaling $147 billion, which is 35% below the 2018-2022 average value. The global economic slowdown has contributed to this decrease, with the current value nearly 60% lower than the peak in 2021.
Despite the general decline in deal value across Asia Pacific, Japan emerged as an outlier with a significant increase of 183% in deal value from the previous year. It became the largest private equity market in the region for the first time, attributed to its appeal as an investment destination. Japan boasts a deep pool of target companies with ample opportunities for performance improvements, as well as a push for corporate governance reform within Japan Inc to divest non-core assets. The resilient performance of the private equity market in Japan highlights its attractiveness to investors seeking growth opportunities amidst broader economic challenges.
Exits in the private equity market also experienced a decline, plunging 26% to $101 billion in 2023 compared to the previous year. A significant portion of these exits, totaling 40%, were through initial public offerings (IPOs), with Greater China accounting for 89% of the IPO exit value in Asia Pacific. In response to these challenges, private equity funds are exploring alternative asset classes, such as infrastructure operations with medium to high returns. This shift in investment strategies reflects a proactive approach to navigating the evolving market landscape and maximizing returns for investors.
Looking ahead, the private equity market in Asia Pacific faces uncertainty in terms of exits, with the outlook for 2024 remaining uncertain. Despite the challenging environment, successful funds are adopting proactive measures to achieve target returns, emphasizing the potential value of deals to buyers through strategy reviews. This approach aims to streamline the inventory of aging assets and ensure cash returns to limited partners, even in a depressed exit market. Additionally, private equity firms are eyeing emerging opportunities in disruptive technologies, such as generative artificial intelligence, which hold promise for future growth.
While the timing of a recovery in the private equity market remains unclear, there are signs of improvement on the horizon. Japan, India, and Southeast Asia are among the markets in Asia Pacific that are viewed favorably for private equity investment opportunities in the coming year. Preqin’s 2023 investor survey supports this outlook, highlighting the potential for growth and profitability in these regions. Despite the challenges posed by the current economic landscape, private equity investors are actively seeking new avenues for growth and exploring innovative strategies to navigate the changing market dynamics.