The Thanksgiving holiday has long been a cornerstone for the American box office, once providing a reliable influx of viewers eager for family entertainment. This year, the industry anticipates a spectacular resurgence, thanks in large part to the arrival of three heavyweight films: Disney’s “Moana 2,” Universal’s adaptation of “Wicked,” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II.” These releases are expected to usher in the most lucrative Thanksgiving weekend since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, with projections for ticket sales soaring between $200 million and $300 million collectively.
The excitement surrounding this year’s Thanksgiving box office can be attributed to the synergistic release of these major films. Each targets different segments of moviegoers, creating an unparalleled opportunity for theaters to attract diverse crowds. “Moana 2,” the highly anticipated sequel to Disney’s beloved animated feature, boasts a powerful nostalgia factor while appealing to a new generation of children. Alongside it, “Wicked” brings the popularity of Broadway to the big screen, appealing to families, teens, and fans of musical theater. Meanwhile, “Gladiator II” caters to those seeking action and epic storytelling, serving as a potential box office titan for mature audiences.
Analyst Shawn Robbins insists this unique combination presents a “perfect storm” for theaters, highlighting a shift in the industry. He notes that the pandemic severely disrupted moviegoing habits, making the market dynamic more unpredictable. However, this year’s Thanksgiving lineup appears to re-establish a balance by targeting broad demographics, reigniting a shared cinematic experience that has been missing for several years.
Historically, the Thanksgiving weekend tends to be one of the highest-grossing periods for movie theaters, with the debate centering around which films will take the lead. The highest box office returns for this holiday period date back to a 2018 lineup composed of “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Creed II,” and “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” which collectively earned an astounding $315 million. However, since 2019, box office numbers have declined, with many aiming to reclaim the glory of yesteryears.
According to Comscore data, Thanksgiving has not exceeded the $200 million mark since 2019, with recent years struggling to capture the same charm and allure. In 2013, box office analysts celebrated a considerable $294.2 million. As the industry grapples with a return to pre-pandemic vigor, this year marks a pivotal moment that could potentially reinvigorate the traditional Thanksgiving moviegoing culture.
Disney, a brand synonymous with animated success throughout the holiday season, faces challenges following a series of underwhelming performances from recent releases. While the franchise had once consistently dominated the Thanksgiving box office with hits such as “Frozen II” and “Moana,” the latter’s recent animation entries have flopped spectacularly. The 2022 release of “Strange World” garnered only $18.9 million and “Wish” barely made waves with $31.6 million this November.
With “Moana 2,” expectations are soaring as it seeks to reclaim its throne. The original film resonated profoundly, establishing itself as a cultural touchstone among families, which should translate into its sequel drawing in substantial audiences. Like its predecessor, “Moana 2” arrives behind a strong promotional campaign linked to the unprecedented success of Disney’s “Inside Out 2,” which raked in $154.2 million in its opening weekend. This momentum sets a positive trajectory for Disney as it ventures back into the animated feature arena.
The implications of this Thanksgiving weekend extend beyond immediate box office revenue. A successful holiday could herald a positive trajectory for the final quarter of the year, shaping industry perceptions and expectations for 2024. Paul Dergarabedian, a senior media analyst at Comscore, underscores the importance of this time of year for theaters and studios alike. The financial performance during this fleeting five-day window ultimately contributes to the annual box office narrative—deciding whether the year concludes with triumph or in disappointment.
As we approach this thrilling Thanksgiving weekend, the convergence of these cinematic behemoths signifies hope and rejuvenation for an industry rebounding from unprecedented trials. With “Moana 2” leading the charge, audiences are encouraged to gather once again and immerse themselves in the collective experience that only a movie theater can provide.